International Desk: Analysts believe that Israel’s unprecedented attack on Tehran and its surroundings is mainly a tactic to derail the upcoming nuclear talks between the United States and Iran. This is what Eli Geranmayeh, deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa department at the European Council on Foreign Relations, believes.
He said that the attack is designed to completely destroy President Trump’s potential diplomatic efforts to limit Iran’s nuclear program.
Although some Israeli officials claim that the attack will further strengthen the United States’ diplomatic position, Eli Geranmayeh believes that the timing and scope of the attack make it clear that its main goal was to close the path to negotiations.
He also said that in this situation, the US-Iran talks to be held under the mediation of Oman on Sunday (June 15) are likely to be postponed. The diplomatic process may temporarily stop and military tensions may take control of the situation again.
He also said there is a consensus within the Iranian leadership to give a “proportionate response” to Israel. According to him, Iran could directly target Israeli military installations as well as critical infrastructure.
However, the question remains as to how effective the response will be, as Iran’s ally Hezbollah has weakened in Lebanon. Geranmayeh said Iran could likely use drone strikes in conjunction with missile strikes to bypass Israeli defenses. In addition, they could target US bases in the Middle East and disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
However, the US has claimed that it was not behind the attack; Israel carried out the attack alone. Eli Geranmayeh says that the Trump administration’s claim will make Iran wary of directly engaging the US. He also believes that Iran will want to avoid a direct military conflict with the US rather than playing into Netanyahu’s hands.
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